I have had to write this very quickly. The situation is going along so rapidly that by the time I am finished there might be more resignations and Boris Johnson might already be gone. Sunak and Javid, of course, are the headliners. Bim Afolami also quit as vice-chair of the party live on TV on Tuesday evening. Junior Parliamentary Secretaries and some junior ministers also felt the need to resign. The Chris Pincher affair has been the final straw for many Tories.
Everyone will be watching events today to see if Johnson survives. He has appointed Nadhim Zahawi as the new Chancellor, great news if you are a stable owner, tax relief on the way no doubt. Steve Barclay takes over as Health Secretary.
If truth be known these two are lightweights that in any other Tory Government both would probably be languishing on the backbenches. The 1922 Committee meets later today. They are the real power in the Conservative Party, ultimately they will decide Johnson’s fate.
Many people are getting very excited at the prospect of Johnson’s demise. While I can understand that opinion from a Scottish Independence view, I would respectfully suggest it is a wrong view! The longer this buffoon remains in charge the better it is for our cause. The damage he has done to not only his own Party but everything else he has held sway over is immeasurable. He has destroyed Parliament as an institution, it has been permanently undermined with his proroguing attempt and his daily lies to the House and the country. He has not only brought himself, but also his office and the Parliament into disrepute. He has also damaged the British union irreparably.
The Brexit fiasco and the Northern Ireland Protocol have set a timer in motion to see the six occupied counties rejoin the rest of the island of Ireland as one nation. One hundred years later than it should have been but still a great thing to see happening.
For the sake of unity, I will not mention where Scotland should be at present in our quest to being independent. Suffice to say much, much further down the road than we are at this time. Hopefully given the chaos that is now ensuing at Westminster our First Minister can take full advantage and press the case more forcefully. There will never be a better opportunity than now!
A lot of people are floating the idea that if Johnson falls then a snap General Election is likely. Others are even hinting that he might call one himself to strengthen his position. I would respectfully suggest whatever happens, there will be no UK General Election before 2024.
Taking the first scenario, he goes and is replaced by another Tory sociopath as leader. That person will want time to repair the undoubted damage wrought upon the Tory Party by Johnson’s Premiership. That will take time and with a 76 seat majority and no need to call an election before December 2024 this new PM has time to win back the confidence of the right wing English electorate. The idea that they would want an immediate stamp of approval on their promotion to Prime Minister is fanciful to say the least. Whatever else Tories are, they are not entirely stupid and power is what motivates them. There is too much risk of losing power if they go to the country anytime soon.
The second instance of Johnson calling an early election to secure is faltering leadership is even more fanciful. There are too many rebels on his own benches to allow that vote to annul Parliament to succeed. Secondly and more importantly it is likely to enrage those Tories sitting in marginal seats. They know if an election happens anytime soon, they are out of a job! All that Johnson would succeed in doing is to increase the number of Tory MPs that would be likely to vote him out if another opportunity arises anytime soon.
More likely is that Johnson or his successor will take all the time they can in the hope of turning round public opinion in the Tory Party’s favour.
Meantime, we need to be looking towards late 2024 to that Plebiscite Election we have been promised. We must keep the pressure up on both Westminster and Bute House to make sure that it happens.
The events this week in Edinburgh regarding the Lord Advocate and the Draft Referendum Bill show that we must remain vigilant. Let the English and the Tory Party worry about Johnson and his government. All our focus should be on Scotland and its independence and what we can do to advance that position.
A word of advice to our First Minister. We know you like nothing more than a bandwagon. However, please fight all your instincts to join in the Anglo news cycle circus that is Boris Johnson and get on with the day job of getting Scotland independent.
Remember what Napoleon said, “Never interrupt your enemy when they are making a mistake!”
Not so sure that there won’t be a GE just to scupper an Independence Referendum. It’s not the govt that decides but those really in power and, because the Labour party is just another establishment tool – there to give the voters the illusion of choice -, they don’t care that much which of the two parties are the puppets. and have nothing to fear by ditching the Blue Tories for the Red Tories.
Sound advice but let’s hope Boris is ousted soon.
His lies, abuse and incompetence have gone on long enough.
I disagree,from a Scottish Independence position the longer he stays in charge undermining everything in British Political life the better!
“Meantime, we need to be looking towards late 2024 to that Plebiscite Election we have been promised. We must keep the pressure up on both Westminster and Bute House to make sure that it happens.”
Agreed. But we must make sure that the terms set for the Pleb. Election are those which mean we have a realistic chance of winning.
The dual hurdle of a 50% threshold of seats and votes by a single party must be achieved in order to declare a majority in favour of Independence. Given that even in the ‘tsunami election’ of 2015 the SNP achieved only 50% of votes cast – in fact, it was 49.97% in 2015, whilst it was 36.9% in 2017 and 45.0% in 2019 – that is a phenomenally high bar, especially when 16-17 year olds will be excluded. Some might say it is impossible to overcome.
So whilst we can’t ‘win’, we dare not lose.
It is imperative that a Yes Alliance is formed in a pleb. election. Nicola Sturgeon talked about ‘my party’ – the SNP – achieving the requisite volume of votes and number of seats. Never mind bending Westminster to our will in order to obtain a S30 (Alex Salmond) we need to bend Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP to our will!
If it becomes clear over time that we cannot break her intransigence and make her combine with all pro-Independence canidates and parties we must make it be known loud and clear that Nicola Sturgeon, knowingly or unwittingly, is leading us into a trap from which there may be no escape for generations (plural) or ever.
I very much fear you are right and very much regret that the FM has even suggested a majority of votes as a possibility as Westmister will hold her (and us) to it if were to turn out that the SNP won a majority of Scottish seats, but not votes, despite the fact that that is not the Westminster system.
I also worry about her talking of ‘my party, as that suggests she is not recognising any other pro-independence parties, still less getting them onside and working cooeratively.
It looks increasingly as if Scotland will have to fight for Independence with one hand tied behind her back by her own governent!
But if there is a snap election that takes us all the way to 2029 – cause sure as hell Sturgeon won’t make a snap election a plebiscite.She will say that we have to give the new govt the chance to refuse a referendum
Promises Promises. None of which will be kept. Why do people keep clutching at straws. The snp and Nikola have done nothing for Scotland for nigh on 8 years and now you think she is going to have a ref and if that does not work a plebiscite election and when that impossible target won’t be reached . What then. Your grandchildren will be talking the same language long after you are gone and what then.
That no constitutional mechanism exists to oust a rogue P.M. in a so-called liberal democratic polity, will play very badly on the international finance markets. Perhaps, as has often the case, it’ll be the coupon-clippers who’ll finally decide Johnson’s next move for him. Personally, I’m for keeping him right where he is and look forward to the day when he’s dubbed in a Daily Telegraph banner headline as being: “The man who single-handedly destroyed the Tory party”.
You speak of unity, but I am finding it very difficult to work up any enthusiasm to get behind Nicola Sturgeon and her gang. She is not to be trusted. I feel that this referendum campaign is just another Sturgeon trick to hang on to power, like the two votes SNP wheeze at the last election.
I intend to vote for Alba, and that vote should count in an independence referendum.
Whether there is a snap GE or not, I just hope the preparations for a Plebiscite Election are complete, and that we’ve given ourselves an achievable objective; 30 Westminster seats. More if we can, sure thing, but 30 means we win and Scotland is on it’s way.
Please, let there be no more talk of a Referendum’s 50%+ share of the vote threshold and a Plebiscite Election’s straight majority of seats.
….Assuming of course we don’t elect another shower of bench warmers.
This is where the British establishment are trying to put a more acceptable face on the Westminster circus by removing Boris. This is more to do with the panic of a pebiste election which Westminster cant rig , be prepared for a referendum and love bombing from a new Tory Party leader. Strugeon cannot be allowed to play her local franchise game to save this corupt, undemocratic British state with a second doggy referendum. This is all just Theatre to make it look you have a choice while getting shafted again. Dissolve the Union.
Going for unity in a plebiscite election is for me a non starter. Unless the SNP stand down 2 candidates in East Lothian and Fife to allow the 2 Alba candidates to stand. No chance of that happening,. This will be the end of Alba if they stand aside and let the SNP stand. There will not be unity. Look at Smyth’s comments after he stood on the podium at the poorly attended Bannockburn event. He came off the podium and the next speaker asked if he would march with another indy party I forget whose name is. He replied most certainly not. You have to remember the SNP are snakes. They will never change. They say one thing and do another. Waken up.
Fortunately Sandy you do not get to decide the rules.
Aye but you see BB where the huge mistake here is that Sturgeon and her cabal and that is what it is, are by-passing Parliament. The way they are now getting the L.A. to go to the Supreme Court and fight a case she has no confidence in and would not pass in the Scottish Parliament. This is as bad as Wolfe fighting against James Keatings and wasting all the Nationalists donations which was quite substantial. The Cabal are trying to get this through Parliament with no questioning whatsoever. Now forget about Indy for a minute and transfer this move to a country not so far away. If you read about them doing this you would laugh. It is going nowhere. Sturgeon has just bought herself more time . There will be a new Prime Minister I hope today and Sturgeons bogey man will be away. He is not fit for office, any office and remember back to late 19 when Sturgeon lined herself up with the Tories to back them into having an election full well knowing Bozo was miles in front of the polls after the number they done on Corbyn. Give Sturgeon her due. She knew what she was doing. she got what she wanted and now its falling apart as her plan also. No knew Prime Minister will in its first term agree to an Indy Ref. If Sturgeon and her cabal do win 50%+1 of the votes or 30 seats once they make up their mind , and declare Indy, what next?. I see no answers. Nothing. What happens on day 1 if you win whatever majority they choose?. It will turn into a pantomime. An old friend of mine once said to me BB ” Its easier to break a single thread than a tangled web” and a tangled web is what Scotland is in the structure of the UK. Sturgeon in my view is a dunce. What you see in Parliament is different to what you see when she is caught outside being interviewed. All the blinking and twitching. I asked a colleague close to Parliament what she was like and the quick answer was she was a weirdo. This is all going to fail BB. Hope you do not mind your Resident Yoon writing long messages
I thought it was agreed Sturgeon’s a unionist……..so? Ditch the careerist.