Nicola Sturgeon and her government have been experiencing the worst few weeks in the party’s history. The Gender Recognition reform and the transfer of male prisoners into the women’s prison estate has many believing the time has come for a change of direction and leadership. Her recent media interviews have shown that she is losing her grip over the party and her brief! She has struggled to answer the simplest of questions over the ideology of Self-ID.
These were questions which were asked by the likes of Joanne Cherry and Joan McAlpine.They were dismissed as being transphobes or bigots and ostracised by the leadership. Their concerns, like those of countless Scots women, not valid. However this weekend they have both issued bruising articles in the press, which criticise Sturgeon and her party, with other commentators also issuing damming articles of her handling of this debacle. These articles all predict that this is the beginning of the end of Sturgeon’s premiership with speculation of who will then take over the at the helm.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/23300397.joanna-cherry-tells-nicola-sturgeon-eat-humble-pie-grr/
There are some obvious contenders who will be throwing their hat in the ring. However, they are all going to be affected by this running sore that is unlikely to go away. Neil Gray is a recognised contender who relinquished his Westminster seat to take up one in Holyrood. He is a loyalist with big ambitions, however he has not cut through to the core membership and his televised attack on Ash Regan after she resigned her ministerial post so she could vote against the GRR will likely come back to haunt him. He has been fed lines to go out and brief against his colleague thinking that he would have public support behind him. Instead, he is now faced with the reality that the public are actually angry with him. There is a video of him being castigated by a constituent on the sex education being delivered in schools. His denial of its very existence exposed him in the worst light possible.
Angus Robertson is the bookies favourite although the list is in need of updating. As Harold Wilson famously said, “A week in politics is a long time.”His time in Holyrood has damaged Angus a great deal. He feels that there is an entitlement for him to have the top job. He acts as if it is his turn while doing very little to the win hearts and minds of his colleagues, never mind the party faithful. He has failed to make much of an impression since he entered Holyrood. He gives the impression that Edinburgh is too small a stage for his talents. He much preferred the show in the Westminster bear pit. Also, the night life was more to his tastes in London!
The grassroots maybe thinks he is the preferred candidate, however very few actually offer support for him. He has been very reticent to put his head above the parapet over GRRB. This has not endeared him to Sturgeon or her cabal. The front runner doesn’t always get the top job. Angus betrayals over his first wife, his former leader and his lack of gender enthusiasm will damage his tilt for leadership. A classic case of pride before a fall.
Humza Yousaf is another candidate who sees himself as being Sturgeon’s successor. Like Angus, Humza has a huge opinion about himself, why nobody knows. He has made a mess of every brief given to him. However, his poor handling of the NHS and the constant demands for his resignation have no doubt holed his chances below the waterline. There are the Holyrood rumours that Sturgeon deliberately put him into this job knowing that he was unable to grasp the enormity of this brief and to make the changes required for the NHS to recover from the pandemic. If this is true, then questions could be asked of Sturgeon why she decided to give an inappropriate candidate the toughest job in Scottish politics knowing that he could not do it and the damaging effect that this would have on services. Was this her way of removing another rival?
John Swinney has been tipped as Sturgeon’s preferred choice to continue her work, to secure ‘her legacy.’ He has been loyal to the party and Sturgeon, taking on many roles over the years. However, his previous role as party leader was unremarkable, and he was unable to raise the party’s fortunes in elections. It was only the return of Alex Salmond that rescued the party from Swinney’s disastrous leadership. His time has been and it is unlikely the new generation would back the idea of another John Swinney leadership. Very much a spent force that needs to be put out to pasture.
Another contender is Kate Forbes. She has been also been heavily favoured by many to be the next leader. She took over the Finance brief at a critical time. Indeed on the morning Derek Mackay resigned. Kate had to deliver his budget in the chamber the following day. With little time to prepare, she delivered a flawless Budget speech to Holyrood.
She was highly praised after this and was seen as a future leader. Kate has recently been on maternity leave. This has allowed her to dodge the GRR vote and its’ resultant fallout. Kate may have been advised this was a good tactical judgement others think it was a cynical act of cowardice. The entire GRA fiasco has made for a very unforgiving and cynical grassroots.
The Conservative MSP Megan Gallagher interrupted her maternity leave to come back briefly to vote against the bill. Some of the many opposed to GRA noted this and there was lots of social media dissatisfaction at Kate’s absence.Forbes’s opposition to the GRR on religious grounds is well known. Many SNP members have been asking why Kate could not do the same as Megan instead of leaving the nine rebels to do all the heavy lifting.
If she thought she could avoid the vote and then return with no consequences then she has made a great political miscalculation. Her first interview back will be her toughest and she will be asked about her position on the GRRB. Members are no longer willing to accept prevarication on this topic. They have had enough of that from Sturgeon, Smith et al! There is no middle ground, on GRA there are only two sides and she will have to make a choice, she either backs the government or she sides with the rebels and resigns. This could see Kate’s chances of the leadership being over. The other question is of course, now that she has a young child, does she really crave the top job at present? Maybe it is the next leadership contest that is the best chance for Kate Forbes? She is a young woman and time is definitely on her side.
Which brings me to the person I think is best placed not just to succeed Sturgeon but to revitalise the SNP and the YES Movement. The grassroots are also becoming more and more vocal in their admiration and support of Ash Regan. She had the courage to resign her ministerial post over the GRRB.It showed she could ‘vote with her conscience.’ She won a huge amount of support from within the SNP membership as well as across all political boundaries with her stance. She is the first minster during SNP’s 15 year reign to resign on an issue of principle and policy.
She did this knowing full well what the Sturgeon machine had done to others that had stood in her way. Ms. Sturgeon does not like or tolerate dissent! Regan would have been facing a political abyss, unsure of what was ahead of her. However, her strength of character and conviction won out and she took the brave decision to resign. That is a trait that the grassroots very much appreciate in a leader, courage! Something that has been sadly lacking over the past eight years. To face down Westminster, you need a brave leader, not a procrastinator!
Immediately after Ash’s resignation a briefing operation commenced against her, but she nimbly avoided the attacks. Showing political nous she carefully avoided the traps set for her. Another box ticked as she out thought and out manoeuvered her detractors. To date the briefing continues, with Emma Rodrick, Alyn Smith and Shirley-Anne Somerville all saying that she should resign if she and the other rebels can not support the SNP GRA Reform. Those well versed in the 2021 manifesto know only too well that Self-ID was never mentioned in any manifesto. Instead, it offered a vague statement on gender recognition reform. Ash Regan is on record that she has no objection to Gender transition, she is like the majority of Scots, she opposes Self-ID! She is on the side of the people, not the SNP leadership.
It is quite obvious that these continued briefings against her are designed to provoke a reaction from her and try to bully her into submission. Sturgeon desperately needs a distraction and she wants the party’s membership to turn on Regan. She too sees Ash Regan as a likely contender to her leadership.
This has not happened so far with all of the rebels.Those that the Sturgeonites don’t see as threats to the leadership are getting a fairly easy time of it in comparison Ash Regan or Joanna Cherry.
Those MSPs that were willing to be whipped into voting for a bill which 2/3 of SNP voters do not support are seen as no threat to Sturgeon. They have shown by their actions they have no spine to fight for the leadership of the SNP or for Scotland’s independence.
I sense that Regan is a canny operator who will be the broom that can sweep clean the malaise to independence that has been so evident in Sturgeon’s tenure. She has come through the entire GRRB debacle not only unscathed but has raised her profile and stature among the grassroots of the entire YES Movement, not just the SNP. Obvious assets for anyone that intends to lead a liberation movement!
She had the courage to take a stand against this very unpopular bill. Last week Regan played a part in reversing the government’s decision to allow men to self-identify their way into woman’s prisons. The two cases of dangerous convicts Adam Graham and Andrew Burns brought the reality of Self-ID into public attention and boy did the public react, and with much anger.
Regan has laid out her position eloquently and with confidence in media interviews. At the same time as our First Minister was blubbering and stuttering and couldn’t recall her way through television interviews there was Ash Regan offering well needed political leadership from within the SNP.
She has proved to be a tower of integrity and honesty, being able to articulate the anger felt by the Scottish public. As a government minister she had a reputation for being an excellent performer in the chamber with a knack for getting complex bills through parliament by skilled negotiation and building relationships across the political divide.
She is now free from the constraint of ministerial protocol and can speak widely on a range of issues. She is being seen within the grassroots Yes and SNP supporters as the leadership needed for the change to take us forward to independence. The other candidates all offer managed decline, more of the same and the disappearing reality of independence.
Ash Regan is now the last hope for the SNP and independence in the here and now. She is the one who can build a national convention to include all the pro-independence parties and civic society. She has not yet declared any interest in going further, but there is no doubt she has not noted the surge in support during her recent meteoric rise. She is currently 66/1 at the bookies. Get your bets in quick before the odds shorten. I will be putting a few quid where my mouth is!
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Since I first expressed my opposition to this entire GRA nonsense I have found myself being banned and blocked on social media platforms. Even here many people who have subscribed to my blogs no longer recieve notifications when I post a new blog.It has grown worse since February last year when I made my views as a peacenik clear and refused to join in with the war mongers and their Russophobia. I have opposed wars my entire life and will not for the sake of popularity jettison my principles. If you agree with my musings in these blogs I would ask that you share my blogs wherever you can on social media and help me beat the censors and war mongers.
Will Ash Regan as leader withdraw all SNP MPs out of Westminster or is she happy for these MPs to continue to play their pathetic role as part of the British establishment?
I agree with your views in this and with Ash Regan being a potential leader. I strongly believe the next leader must come from those who recognise gender ideology & self-ID as harmful whilst acknowledging the requirements of those with gender dysphoria.
Political Scotland is at a crossroads, with those who are comfortable with Nicola Sturgeon at the helm leading us to Independence & unwilling to countenance any other way of doing it, continuing to vote for them.For others the passing of the GRRB was the final nail in the coffin.
A power struggle will ensue, if not already going strong but the status quo cannot be allowed. Scotland cannot move forward with Nicola Sturgeon and the loyalist zealots still in power. Any attempt to replace her with a like- minded successor will bring people onto the streets. Perhaps that is exactly what is needed to rid us of them once and for all.
It seems hanging your hat on the anti-GRRB vote could be worse than a ‘defacto’ referendum. The concept of legal gender recognition is firmly taking root in Europe, 38 member states of the Council of Europe have a legal or administrative procedure to ensure legal gender recognition, and nine have a self-determination system. The recent case of Sixteen-year-old Brianna Ghey may give ammunition to the GRRB cause. There is more to independence than a single issue. Maybe the real zealots are the Tories for independence party.
The GRRB like Sturgron is old news, chip paper tomorrow.The women of Scotland have defeated tge biology denying no sense and taken out their keader too.Rejoice!
“Those that the Sturgeonites don’t see as threats to the leadership are getting a fairly easy time of it in comparison”
Not even Sturgeon is daft enough to go after the Ewings. They’ve already done their worst to Michelle Thomson and she’s risen above it. But yes Ash Regan is Sturgeon’s biggest problem at the moment. She’s impressed me during GRRB and has the skills needed to led and unite. What she previously lacked was public recognition – well that’s been sorted out! Plus her English accent will confuse the heck out of Anglo-British msm 🙂
Sadly changing the leader is only the first small step. The TransCult are entrenched. Dozens of HQ staff, Politicians offices, affiliates to the NEC etc etc. The takeover and dominance was actively encouraged. It will be very difficult for a new leader to recover the Party. The Web of Cult activists have a vice like grip on the organisation.
Take a close look at the staff of MP and MSP offices and you will be challenged to find more than a half dozen without easily identifiable Cult activists and supporters….including the FM office team.
We had a Stalin like purge of the “officer class” during the last 8 years.
Sadly it goes even wider. The Greens, Labour, LibDems have all been infiltrated in a manner the old communist party would be proud of.
Holyrood no longer represents public opinion. The People are not recognised as Sovereign.
I would welcome Sturgeon being replaced but I have seen Stonewall take over Holyrood. The Police, The Courts. The MSM, Businesses, etc etc.
How do we get Power back to the People?
You start by cutting off the head of the snake!
Exactly.
She would be my choice also, she’s articulate, she has principles and courage and I believe would be the one person capable of uniting the movement.
She’s also the only one who had the courage to resign which in itself tells me she is more trustworthy than any other SNP MSP/MP.
The SNP will never get my vote whilst Peter Murrell remains as CEO of the party. He needs to go along with his wife and ALL their syncophants.
Just to set the cat amongst the pigeons…
I know, I know, there’s sense for the SNP’s Leader has to be an MSP, and the NEC set the rules on it, but…
IF the next big step in the Independence journey is to happen, I feel the precedents set by Sturgeon’s capitulations to Westminster rule and abandonment of the Claim of Right have changed the epicenter of the struggle for Independence.
With Sturgeon content for Holyrood to be “legally” subservient and restrained by the Scotland Act and UK Supreme Court, she has turned a Holyrood route to Independence into dead end.
Consequently, doesn’t that leave our Westminster MP’s notionally, and constitutionally, closer to the Claim of Right than a constitutionally disemboweled Holyrood? Thus, isn’t there a valid argument that the SNP’s Leader ought really to be an MP with UK Parliamentary privilege, rather than a subservient toady in a Vichy Assembly that’s just run itself aground on a GRA sandbank? The MP’s still have option of walking out the door, with all that, that entails Constitutionally.
Sturgeon will leave the Office of First Minister a very much lesser and reduced Office than it was when she took over.
Better yet, why not let a Constitutional Convention propose a Leadership strategy for the whole movement so that the SNP’s leadership is a perfunctory appointment of little consequence to the Movement?
I’m beginning to get deja vu here about the Vow in 2014… Everybody thought “something” had to be done about the Vow and the enigmatic commitment to more powers; but nothing happened, time moved on, and in the finish, the Unionists were just allowed to squirm off the hook.
If we don’t find common purpose and move on this, the decision will be taken away from us, and expediency will choose Sturgeon’s successor, leaving us stuck with another lame duck Devolutionist who is also transfixed with the Trans / Self ID bourach, and yet another hurdle to be jumped before there’s any possibility of forward momentum towards Independence.
Step one in everything you have mentioned and everything everyone else has mentioned is dependent on one vital thing,political will! Sturgeon is the roadblock to every initiative.Her removal is paramount before anything whatsoever can be implemented. Scottish Independence will not be won in a courtroom or the UN or the EU.It will be won in Scotland by Scotland’s legally and democratically elected representatives every other suggestion, magic bullet is pie in the sky. Yes we do need a Constitutional Convention again it is being blocked by Sturgeon. Her successor must implement this as a first step towards our freedom.
Assuming this happens and Nicola is on her way out, my money would be on anyone who stands on a policy of returning decision making to conference and removing affiliate groups from the NEC and replacing them with ordinary members. If any of them do that, I suspect the remaining members will reward them with their vote. In doing this, they would be ensuring that the more bonkers initiatives that appear would be looked at with more sane eyes, no matter what the issue at hand is.
it is not the SNP leader but the RM that needs to change. The FM selects the cabinet and runs the Scottish Government. As far as party leader goes it has less public perception
An astute observation and recommendation Roddy. Some of the more sensible observations also came from Ash Regan during the NZET committee meeting I attended re ongoing ferry debacle last week (see approx 10.37):
https://www.scottishparliament.tv/meeting/net-zero-energy-and-transport-committee-january-31-2023
“Change happens slowly, then all at once.”
Sturgeon is approaching her Ceaușescu moment.
It may seem like her authority is unassailable but the wolf pack have no sentimental attachment to an injured leader.
We may have been disappointed that Stephen Flynn didn’t turn out to be a independence, fundamentalist, firebrand, but he wasn’t Alison Thewliss and he has shown some public resistance to the Great Helmsperson.
Ash Regan, Joanna Cherry and others who defied edicts of the Imperial Court were not instantly made non-persons, vanished to the gulag. A leader who dictates by the threat of dire punishment must be able to make public show of their omnipotence, else all is exposed as bluff and bluster.
Alyn Smith, Shirley-Anne Somerville et al expose themselves as truly pathetic lickspittles with their empty threats of expulsions. Wake up you cretins, your cult leader has been exposed as essentially a toom tabard. And you think that you have the power to intimidate. Self delusion reaches critical mass.
“Genius has its limitations, stupidity is not thus encumbered.”
“HUMZA Yousaf’s wife Nadia El-Nakla has dropped her legal case against a Scottish nursery,” says The National today.
I wonder…
News, is emerging that the missing 11 year old Galashiels girl has been found alive and well
For her parents the last week of her dissapearance must have been horrendous. But mercifully the end result is fantastic.
However in the finding of the girl police have charged a man who it appears has been living these last six years as a woman with a woman’s name.
No details have emerged about a crime or otherwise save confirmation of an arrest.
No doubt there will at present be a huge pressure on police to try to minimise any fall out for Sturgeon and her trans policies.
Anyway, great that the wee girl has been found!
Here’s what Stu Campbell has reported thus far –
https://wingsoverscotland.com/the-thing-that-never-happens/
.
Thanks for that. I have found myself depressed by this whole perverted debacle and angry beyond words. To me the safeguarding of the young is a huge responsibility and I now find the SNP/Greens are the greatest threat to them and to women. I didn’t vote for Stonewall and their hingers on and I will never vote for them.
The accused racist known as Humza Yousaf has no chance of ever being leader
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/humza-yousafs-wife-drops-legal-29156995
I was in Ash’s constituency before I got sick of the party’s leadership. I voted for her to become our candidate in the all woman short list, So I’ve known her a while, but never has she struck me as a possible leader.
I welcome what she did, but I think, like Sturgeon, all jokes aside, that she lacks the cojones to deliver independence.
I’m not interested in who will be the next SNP leader. I will NEVER EVER vote SNP no matter who is F.M. Why are these so called rebels still SNP MSP? Why have they not joined Alba? They know the SNP has no intensions of getting us Indy. As far as I’m concerned whether Its Joanna Cherry, Ash Regan or Kate Forbes its all about self. We’ve had eight torturous years of this I for one am not falling for it. It’s time all SNP MPs and MSPs stood up and be counted.
In the interim, a couple of things could be done. Split the leadership, recall the Westminster MP’s to Holyrood and have them as the only Scottish Parliamentarians with full Constitutional Powers approach the UN to hold a referendum under international law. S. Flynn and M. Black share overall leadership of the SNP. The position of FM at Holyrood with its limited Devolved power’s to be secondary to the independence process, there for the day job.
A suggestion but a very poor one if I must say. Scotland is where our independence will be won. No country ever gets free using the colonisers placemen. Flynn, Black,Robertson,Humza are the old guard and offer no change to the Sturgeon dead years. The UN will take no part in our case until the ballot box has spoken. AConstitutionwl Convention is the first and only sensible step.