Poll would result in over 20 Alba Party MSPs being elected to the Scottish Parliament
A new poll conducted by the respected pollster Panelbase has showed that Alba Party could be on course to win over 20 seats at the next Scottish Parliament election.
In the “breakthrough” poll, 42% of those that voted SNP with their 2021 Scottish Parliament Constituency Vote said that they would vote for Alba Party with their Regional list ballot in order to return a greater number of pro independence MSPs.
Similarly, 48% of those that would vote Yes in a future independence referendum would also vote for Alba on the list to help return a larger pro independence majority to the parliament.
In the 2021 Scottish Parliament Election, the Conservative Party won 31 seats, with 26 of them coming from the regional list with a vote share of 23.5%. Scottish Labour took 22 seats with only 2 being thanks to constituencies, meaning that the party’s 17.9% of the regional list made up almost all of its seats.
If the Scottish independence movement were to back Alba to help secure more pro independence seats, as today’s poll release suggests, it would result in a near electoral wipe out of the Labour Party and Conservatives in Scotland.
In a further sign that many Scottish Labour voters are also supporters of Scottish independence, 19% of those that voted Labour in 2021 also say that they would vote for Alba Party to help return more independence supporting MSPs.
The poll is also good news for Alba Party’s prospects amongst younger voters with 36% of 16 to 34 years olds also saying they would give their list vote to Alex Salmond’s party.
Alba say that the results show that they have broken through into the political mainstream and that “ a substantial amount of the electorate” now see the the party “ as an accepted means to progress the case for Scottish independence as a more immediate priory”.
Commenting Alba Party’s General Secretary Chris McEleny said:
“ Alba Party have spent all of our time and resources dedicated to making the case for why Scotland needs independence as an immediate priority. In the past year we have delivered 150,000 copies of the Wee Alba Book “The New Case for independence” and as we approach the end of the year we have held about 50 independence public meetings to date. We are also in the middle of our second national billboard campaign promoting Scottish independence this year.
“ This sensational poll result reflects what we have been seeing as we campaign across the country: people believe that the vision and the plan being set out by Alex Salmond is what the independence movement should be doing; our Alba MPs at Westminster are taking the action the independence movement wants to see; and we are putting independence as an immediate priority front and centre of all of our campaign activity.
“ Scotland is an energy rich land but we have the absurdity of millions of Scots facing fuel poverty, that is the social and economic argument that makes regaining independence as an immediate priority a necessity.
“ Of course, independence is our priority not the next Scottish parliament election but if this poll translated into seats then Alba Party would completely wipe out the Labour Party and the Tories if Scots cast their votes to return the largest amount of pro independence MSPs.”
Notes:
A) Poll info
Agency: Panelbase
Universe: 16+ resident in Scotland
Methodology: Online
Sample size: 1004
Fieldwork dates: 12 – 16 December 2022
Weighting: All the results were weighted by age, sex, 2019 Westminster election, 2014 independence referendum and country of birth.
B) Poll Question
Would you vote for the pro-independence Alba Party with your Scottish Parliament Regional List Vote if you thought it would help elect a higher amount of pro-independence MSPs to the Scottish Parliament? Excluding don’t know
Those answering Yes:
All polled – 23%
Those that voted SNP with their constituency vote in 2021 – 42%
Those that answered that Scotland should be an independent country – 48%
If these results hold, we will be looking at a situation very similar to Ireland’s before independence when Sinn Fein overtook the Irish Party of Redmond.
let’s try and keep our feet on the ground, Lorna.
It will take an enormous swing to Alba to mirror Sinn Fein’s triumph in the 1918 electon. Then SF won 73/105 seats in Ireland.Let’s say 70% to round figures up.
Alba would need to win about 90/129 Scottish MSP seats to mirror that achievement.
Not saying it won’t happen some day but a poll suggesting Alba could win 20 list seats falls far short of that at present.
Yes, Ben agree entirely. You did read my post? Sinn Fein started to move forward way before the Irish Party’s demise, which did not happen till after Redmond died – about 1918, I think. He was the force that held it together. Not saying we want anyone to die. Heavens, no. What I was suggesting was that ALBA could be on the move, even though it will take the SNP another few years to fall, just as it took Sinn Fein a few years to gain its pole position. However, the SNP will fall. The GRA Reform legislation will kill it and the Greens. As for Labour and the Lib Dems? How much further can they descend in Scotland? All four parties are going to pay the price for betraying Scotland’s female population – 51-52%.
I have never known such rage in women before, not since the Suffragettes (not personally, obviously) and we are uniting right across the globe. The SNP/Greens and the lapdog Lib Dems and Labour may have won the battle; they will not win the war. Before anyone demands how we change things back, we need to introduce new legislation that protects the rights of females, keeps men out of our spaces and rights. That will give the ‘trans’ lobby what it clamoured for, that wee administrative tweak (it was what they wanted, wasn’t it, not actually access to female spaces and rights?) but it will afford females even greater protection than we had before the GRA reform. That is the compromise that will save Westminster from having to face down the ‘trans’ lobby in rUK and, at the same time, affording females their proper rights which have been infringed.
Happy clappy all round and no adverse effect on females. Then, of course, all the ramifications and implications of the GRR will start to become evident right across all Westminster departments, as the laws on every aspect of our existence in the UK begins to be affected: on all manner of official documents and access to specific female benefits, etc. Next, the implications for all male-centred aspects of our daily lives will start to be noticed, too, as ‘trans’ men demand their new ‘rights’. Then we’ll really hear the squeals.
Exactly the news we need for the NEW YEAR! Wonderful!!
The Scottish voting public were advised at the last Scottish elections about giving second vote to Alba but were ignored. Hopefully the same mistake won’t be repeated and sturgeon will accept the entrance of a REAL indy party.
Cole Hamilton’s – dynamic risk assessment (of GRR certificate authenticity} at the point of entry – to say swimming baths – surely indicates that such people as he should never be allowed decision-making authority.
Where else to go but Alba? Lifetime SNP supporter and activist no longer. And not just me, our entire adult extended family.
Welcome, you will be among thousands of fellow freedom fighters, and defender’s of our women folk.
This result confirms two principal things.
Firstly Alba is getting hugely stronger in support from voters
Secondly the SNP is getting weaker as the message about two votes SNP wanes.
Sturgeon deliberately hobbled the maximisation of independence MSPs. But folks know that now.
With the Poll revealing that 42% of SNP voters and 19% of Labour voters would give their second vote to Alba, shows that very clearly.
The shift is on. The message is getting out. And thankfully Sturgeon her foul clique are coming to an end.