A Guest Post by Geoff Bush.
Sat Morning Election Forecasting – harmless fun for politics geeks.
Today I thought I’d have a play with the List Vote Calculator spreadsheet available on SNP & ALBA Members Facebook Page thanks to Lindsay Caldwell.
What this spreadsheet model lets you do is to enter the % share of the list vote that you think ALBA will get in each region, and then it shows you the effect in terms of total list seats won by all parties, ALBA included. It is based on 2016 results so the output needs to be qualified by that.
It is generally recognised that SNP 1 & 2 policy for maximising Indy supporting seats is only really potentially effective in Highlands & Islands, and South Scotland Electoral regions. The “warning” that the SNP issue is that ALBA candidates standing on the list will gave the effect of reducing the number of Indy list seats and let the Unionists win more list seats.
So here is what happens when you apply different levels of vote share for ALBA in each of these regions:
Highlands & Islands (2016 – 1 SNP list seat)
| ALBA % | ALBA Seats | SNP Seats | Net Change in Indy Seats |
| 6% | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 12% | 2 | 0 | +1 |
| 24% | 3 | 0 | +2 |
| 32 | 4 | 0 | +3 |
NOTE: At ALBA % levels between 2% and 5% the model shows ALBA winning no seats and SNP losing 1 seat, so there is a minus 1 change in Indy seats in that 2-5% range.
South of Scotland (2016 – 3 SNP list seats)
| ALBA % | ALBA Seats | SNP Seats | Net Change in Indy Seats |
| 5% | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 10% | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 15% | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| 23% | 4 | 0 | +1 |
NOTE: At ALBA % levels below 5%, the model shows that ALBA wins no seats, and the SNP loses no seats, so there is no change in no of Indy seats
Conclusions:
1.In the South of Scotland region there is no level of ALBA vote which would result in a reduction in the total of Indy seats.
- In Highlands & Islands between 2% and 5% ALBA share, ALBA wins no seats and the SNP loses its only seat – its no1 list candidate who is in that position as a result of the “list fix”. The existence of the “fix” is arguably a strong factor in driving an ALBA share higher than the 2-5% range.
- The differences between the projected results for the two regions show how tricky the lists are to predict. In South Scotland a 23% share is projected to give ALBA 4 list seats, 23% in Highlands & Islands would achieve only 1 ALBA list seat.
* Note these numbers, are based on 2016 today the SNP sit anywhere between 4-8% higher in the Constituency voting intentions.
I agree Geoff.
Folk need to understand that SoS is a real opportunity for ALBA – a shot to nothing if you like. The SNP are in with a real shout of winning 3 further constituencies in this region as they were only ~ 3% behind the Unionist winner n 2016. This would make it even less likely that pro-Indy would make a net loss if the SNP lost their List seats (and ALBA did not pick up all those that they lost).
H&I is a different kettle of fish. The cards could fall right there too much less likely to achieve a favourable outcome, especially when you have (former Green MSP) Andy Wightman standing on the List as an Independent.