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A Shot Across the Bows.

Those of us, around during the Thatcher years can remember the joy among the vast majority of Scots in 1997 when Tony Blair’s New Labour swept to power. Many Nationalists like me were dismayed that the Scottish people after 18 years of cruel English Tory Government had not come to the realisation that Westminster would never have Scotland’s best interests, at heart.

Though the SNP vote was up the Scots had made their decision and their loyalty to Labour shone through in the result. Labour took 56 seats and 1.2 million votes. The SNP though had taken 621,550 votes and due to the vagaries of FPTP just six seats.

The Scots really did believe and expect that Labour this time would fulfill its promise of huge societal and economic change. It started off well with the promise kept of a Scottish Assembly. It was a Parliament very much hog tied with the main levers of power and the economy still retained at Westminster. However, it was a start and Scots were sure over time it could make a huge difference to their lives.

It was no surprise in 1999 at the first Holyrood Election that Labour were victorious. They won 38.8% of all the votes cast and just like Westminster 56 seats. The SNP though were now just 10% points behind Labour on 28.7% of the vote. It was a gentle reminder to Donald Dewar and the much loved Labour Party not to let Scots down. The complexity of the voting system ensured that Labour needed the compliant Liberals of Jim Wallace to form a majority administration. The smell of a Ministerial car dashboard is enough to grab any Liberals attention and of course, the Liberals became the obedient little Brit partners of the Labour Party.

The first Labour Administration was timid and became even more so in 2000 after Dewar’s untimely death. By the time of the UK General Election of 2003, nothing much had changed the Scots once more stayed true to Labour. Again they managed 56 seats and were as always the dominant force in Scotland.

Some disquiet though had been mentioned during the campaign about the speed of reform. There was also quite a bit of unrest about Labour’s apparent shift to the right. The SNP had dropped back quite a bit and lost one seat and saw its vote down considerably.

Everything changed in 2003 with the illegal invasion of Iraq. While the Black Watch may have been the British spearhead in the desert, the Scots back home were absolutely opposed to the conflict. Protests and Marches were aplenty. Labour in Scotland was left in no doubt that their Scottish power base were not happy or at least they should have been, if they had been listening. The war, the embrace of neoliberal economics, the creation of more and more Labour peers were not playing well in Scotland. Gordon Brown the defacto Labour leader in Scotland did little to placate the unease. A very unpleasant man that knew better than everyone else. Scotland was his fiefdom he would not be challenged. The spineless Labour MPs, MSPs and Councillors quivered at the very mention of his name. Maybe if they had been a little braver and stood up to Brown Labour would not today be a spent force in Scottish politics.

The SNP was climbing in the polls. Gordon Brown’s solution was simple, up the SNP Bad rhetoric. Deploy the compliant malleable foreign owned press and broadcasters in Scotland against the nasty Nats. Many of the traditional Labour voters were not yet prepared to switch to the nasty Nats voted for the minor Parties at Holyrood. Labour lost six seats. The SNP under the insipid John Swinney managed to lose eight seats. The Tories stayed on their baseline of 18 seats.

In London, Labour was moving further and further right. Neoliberal economics was their credo and Brown relished in them. The Blair/Brown Government embraced Thatcherite economics and attitudes. Scots again began to show their uneasiness at this apparent betrayal. Brown upped the SNP Bad it had always worked and never more so than in Holyrood 2003 Elections. The Billboards with the DIVORCE slogan had done the trick.

Meanwhile, The SNP recalled the master tactician Salmond to lead the Party. He arrived and galvanised the core support. He brought positivity and hope. He talked up the need for independence.He took the fight to Labour. He exposed their true right-wing ideology. The Scots were watching and learning.

At the 2005 UK General Election Labour lost ground and the SNP gained two seats. Their vote was up and the Scots were giving Labour a gentle reminder to get back to their roots of social democratic politics. Brown, Murphy, Alexander et al did not listen, they doubled down on SNP Bad, Independence Bad, Britain great, Labour knows best.

In 2007 the Scottish voters fired their biggest salvo yet across the Labour Bows. In the biggest swing ever, nearly 10% the SNP won a single seat victory at Holyrood. More importantly for the first time ever The SNP took more of the popular vote than Labour in Scotland. The Scots were telling Labour, this time you better listen, we want you to change! They didn’t listen!

Just three years later in 2010 a UK General Election was upon us and those of us in The SNP were hopeful that we could at last make the Westminster breakthrough. We were to be sorely disappointed. Labour under son of the manse Gordon Brown won another landslide they retained all 41 of their seats. The SNP remained on six. The breakthrough never came. The Scots had once again decided to give Labour one last chance. They hoped now with a Scottish Prime Minister Labour would at last address the inequality and poverty issues of Scotland. They wanted an end to these neoliberal economics of the right. They wanted more power for their parliament. They wanted recognition from Labour that their loyalty would be rewarded.

Brown & Co did not listen. They doubled down on SNP Bad, Salmond Bad, Independence, Bad. They felt safe after their 2010 landslide victory at Westminster that they were untouchable. The Scots may vote SNP at the pretend parliament in Edinburgh, however they felt sure in themselves that for the big boys chamber at Westminster they would retain their supremacy. They once more did not listen. They didn’t realise the grassroots was extremely unhappy. This would prove fatal. Gordon Brown thought he was untouchable. He felt sure his, Scottish minions would always remain Labour.

In 2011 Labour got another broadside! The SNP under Alex Salmond did the impossible. They fluked a majority at Holyrood. The D’Hondt/AMS voting system deployed by Labour was never meant to allow a single party gain a majority. It was put in place to specifically avoid what happened in 2011.

On a huge swing and with 45.4% of the Constituency vote The SNP won a massive victory. The SNP gained 32 constituencies, twenty-two from Labour, nine from the Liberals and one from the Tories. Such was the scale of their gains that, of the 73 constituencies in Scotland, only 20 came to be represented by MSPs of other political parties.

Instead of Labour listening they once again doubled down on SNP Bad, Salmond Bad and just refused to listen. Worse was to come when at the 2014 Independence Referendum Labour through their lot in with the Tories against Scotland’s best interests. During this time Alex Salmond warned Labour they would pay a heavy price at the ballot box for their betrayal of their Scottish voters. Again they did not listen!

They did pay the ultimate price in 2015 when they lost 40 of their 41 Scottish seats at Westminster. To this day they still refuse to listen. They are now a fringe party, and their vote went en masse to the SNP. Even today 40% of their remaining support are in the independence camp and Labour refuse to listen. They stay firmly wedded to mother England and her over lordship.

That Labour has not since 2007 managed to win an election you would think they might start to listen to their voters. Sadly all political parties that remain in power too long forget the golden rule do not take your voters for granted! Many shots were fired across the Labour bow for many years all to no avail. They were finally sunk in 2015.There will be no coming back from that. They have been sunk without trace!

There is a new dominant force in Scottish politics. The SNP have not lost an election in Scotland since 2003. In 2017 their Scottish voters fired a small volley across their bows for failing to promote Independence at the UK General Election of that year. Over 500,000 potential SNP/independence voters just stayed at home. They didn’t return to Labour, but their absence was a warning. The SNP did listen, and they recovered slightly in 2019 at the UK General Election. The SNP promised the Scots at that election they would not be dragged out of the EU against their will and that in 2020 there would be an Independence referendum. It, of course, did not happen. We are out of the EU and there is no Independence Referendum or plan in sight.

Between January 2020 and today several other volleys have been fired across the SNP bow. Five new Independence parties have emerged. Four of those parties have since stood down at this forthcoming election to allow for one independence voice. The Alba Party has been tasked with carrying the banner for the Scottish independence supporters. They have extended the hand of comradeship in the direction of the SNP. They are telling the SNP they need to start listening to their grassroots and stop the recent drift away from the core aim. To date the SNP has not been listening.

The SNP under Sturgeon has become extremely autocratic. Conferences cancelled. When they are held independence is not allowed to be discussed. Motions from Branches are ignored as are complaints. When Conference does vote to remove members of the NEC, Ms Sturgeon just reinstates them as affiliate members. The votes of the members for Regional List Candidates are ignored and gerrymandered favourites are put at the top of the lists. These are people who have all been rejected by the branches.

Just like Labour though The SNP has decided to double down on every occasion. 84% of the people recently polled on the GRA and HCB rejected them. Sturgeon ignores the majority. This coming election I believe will be the SNP equivalent of Labour’s 2010 UK General Election result. It is the last hurrah if in these last days of the present campaign she continues to ignore the grassroots of the movement. Sturgeon to her enternal shame, even deployed a Labour tactic, she set the UK anti-Scottish media on to the Alba Party.

I have no doubt the SNP will win this election. The margin will be a substantial one too. However, just as in 2010 at the counts throughout Scotland the Labour Party whooped and hollered at the SNP faithful a day of reckoning is fast approaching for the SNP folk who will no doubt show the same disrespect to the Alba representatives at the count as was shown to them by the Labour Party for decades. It is insanity, Alba are an ally, not a foe.

I once again implore Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP to act in Scotland’s best interests. A Super Majority is still possible. Should we win that then the narrative and control of Scottish independence is firmly in the hands of Scotland. With a Super Majority, Holyrood can be closed and an Independence Plebiscite election called at anytime. That cannot be done with a simple majority. Westminster cannot interfere, it is legal it is recognised globally, it is Scotland’s will, not a Tory whim! It ticks all the right boxes on our road to independence. This is what London fears most!

If however Ms Sturgeon allows her personal animosity and obsession with Gender Politics to gain precedent over Scotland’s Independence there will be a heavy price to pay. The SNP will never be forgiven, a Labour type fate awaits if you continue to double down against the wishes of the Scottish grass roots.

 

 

 

9 thoughts on “A Shot Across the Bows.

  • Just an idle thought, if NS wins in May and quits shortly after to take up some job at UN or WHO, would she have diplomatic immunity?

  • Another super piece of writing and sadly all true. Thank you for your work. It’s always good to know, and encouraging, that there are others thinking the same way.

  • Sadly I don’t think that there’s a snowball’s chance in hell of the SNP under Sturgeon extending any kind of olive branch in the direction of Alex Salmond, ALBA, AUOB or any other non-SNP Independence group of supporters.

    A day of reckoning may well be waiting for the SNP but by then it may be too late for Scotland’s Cause …

  • NS is way too far down the gender-woowoo rabbit hole to listen or change. Looks like she has been compromised and will do anything to thwart Alba and indeed Independence. It will all come out in the wash one day and I marvel at the neck on the woman. Power seems to do some strange things to folk.

  • Spot on – again.

    I expect all the cowardly yes men and yes uterus-bearers in the SNP will have to be forced to accept that they are complicit in allowing sturgeon’s tragic leadership to continue. And I expect an apology from the lickspittle candidates spouting the ” both votes SNP ” lie.

    Alba has given us hope. The dream will never die.

  • There are no safe bets in politics. Despite positive polling data during the run-up to an election, it is votes on the day that matter. Even the paid assistance of the deplorable Scottish media can no longer guarantee anything, especially so if voters decide to stay at home. No one can say with any certainty, just how damaging the amateur-hour antics of the recent Hollyrood enquiry might yet prove to be in the reckoning of electors. People, as we know, also talk amongst themselves, and frequently arrive at decisions well beyond the influence of scribblers, pollsters and party strategists.

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