There has been much excitement and debate since the SNP Programme for Government announcement yesterday. The eye-catching part was, of course, the pledge to legislate for an Independence Referendum. Before the year end a Bill will pass through Holyrood giving us the question to be asked and more importantly a date for the plebiscite.
There are a great many people suggesting and with justification that we have heard this one before from the SNP. I won’t go over all the times between 2016 and this latest announcement that have been reneged upon or abandoned by SNP.
What the SNP need to do this time is be absolutely explicit in how this is going to be implemented. A reader of this blog has contacted me to say he has spoken with one of the SNP inner circle who has informed him of the ‘plan.’
It will be a very short Bill and likely to be introduced immediately after the Christmas recess. The SNP Scottish Government will then invite the UK Government to endorse the Referendum. It is anticipated they will, of course, refuse citing ‘once in a generation, no majority, Scottish people want SNP to use existing powers,’ etc., etc. the usual tropes from our imperial masters. This time though instead of backing down our government is allegedly determined to press on regardless. There is an expectation and hope that the UK Government will either back down and reluctantly agree or take the Scottish Government to court over this legislation.
Irrespective of the outcome it is believed any court case will send a message to the world that the UK Parliament is holding the Scottish Parliament and the Scottish people hostage against their will. This is also likely to increase the numbers in favour of Independence. This action would also fly in the face of UN Article 1.
The principle of self-determination is prominently embodied in Article I of the Charter of the UN. All peoples have the right to self-determination. By virtue of that right, they freely determine their political status and freely pursue their economic, social and cultural development.
https://legal.un.org/repertory/art1.shtml
The European Union has on many occasions given its backing to this UN Declaration and respects the rights of nations to seek self-determination. They are also more than aware from their recent dealings over Brexit that the UK Government do not negotiate or act in good faith.They have seen first hand that legally binding treaties or agreements mean nothing to UK. The Brits are only interested in their own viewpoint and have no hesitation in ignoring conventions or legality in pursuit of these narrow aims. This behaviour could now come back to haunt them when Scotland appeals to the EU Post referendum.
The biggest factor in nations achieving independence from colonial powers rests in recognition by other independent nation states and bodies. The SNP Government want to display to the world they have explored every avenue to try and reach an agreement with the UK Government. In response the UK Government has steadfastly remained intransigent to all the democratic and legal wishes of the Scottish people.
This course of action it is believed will lead to acceptance of the outcome of any independence referendum held in Scotland. It is expected the nations of the world, irrespective of the view of imperial London government will embrace the result. Should the EU Nations quickly recognise Scottish independence there is absolutely nothing London could then do to prevent it happening. Their only recourse would result in RUK becoming a pariah state by attempting military occupation of Scotland. That is seen as a remote outcome, apart from anything else 28% of the UK Armed Forces consists of Scots. We may only be 8.9% of UK population however we dominate the British Army ranks though not so the officer class!
This, I am also assured is their reluctance to get behind or support the Martin Keatings Court action. There is a feeling that this could affect any Scottish Government day in court. Hence why they wish it was not happening at all at this time.
This brings me on the Holyrood Elections in May. Now more than ever it is imperative to ensure that the SNP gets the highest vote possible in the Constituency Seats. It would strengthen the SNP Government pursuit of international recognition if more than 50%+ of the FPTP votes cast are in favour of SNP independence mandate. I also believe now more than ever it is essential we get the largest % possible of pro-independence MSPs and the fewest numbers of British Political Party MSPs at Holyrood. That cannot be achieved by SNP 1-2. That is just a fact whether or not others like that, simple arithmetic wins out. If we drive up the SNP Constituency Vote to record levels we will more than likely get an unprecedented number of SNP FPTP seats, more than enough for a majority. What SNP will not likely get is any List seats. This kind of outcome was unthinkable when Donald Dewar, George Robertson, Gordon Brown, Jim Wallace, Malcolm Bruce and other assorted House-Jocks were attempting to gerrymander and hobble Holyrood from day one.
To date we only have one other Independence focussed party approved by the Electoral Commission, the ISP. Just as it is imperative to vote SNP in the Constituency, it is also vital to vote ISP on the list. Throughout the EU in particular, real proportional voting and coalitions are the norm. Angela Merkel for example arguably since Trump’s election is the leader of the free world is in power thanks to a coalition with CDU, CSU, SPD Parties. As part of our plea to the nations of the EU and World, we can also demonstrate not only are SNP a majority Party with 70+ seats and over 50% of the FPTP seats in our Parliament chamber we also have a huge Pro-Indy majority.
This is the time to set aside all minor and major policy differences and matters. Scotland’s cause is greater than anything else. It is time for all Scots of an Independence persuasion to unite in common cause. Some say that by the time May comes around London will have neutered our Parliament. Should this prove to be true then there is even greater reason to show the world the people of Scotland are determined to be free. Some of you may say that SNP has let you down over women’s rights or education or some other matter. True or not we have to set aside our differences and grab our destiny. It is also a good thing to show the SNP that they cannot backslide in any way as we have put another Iarge independence Party there as a reminder of people power. It shows not just the SNP but London and the wider world that the Scottish people are resolute to end this Union and regain its place among the other free and democratic nations of the world.
A last word to the SNP. It is good to note that the divisive GRA is not part of your Programme for Government going forward long may that continue. Matters like that, Monarchy, EU, EFTA, NATO can all wait till post independence.
To the UK Government please take note we are determined to end this Union. Meet and beat us at the ballot box or face the consequences. Post independence it is better to have a friendly neighbour than an angry one.
When the negotiations begin to end the union here is the reality. RUK actually has nothing that Scotland needs except good will. RUK needs 25% of its electricity, 100% of its oil, 80% of its Gin, 100% of its whisky from Scotland. We have Fish, Food and Faslane that RUK need. They have nothing we need! We can not only feed ourselves we also produce so much that we export the excess. England needs to import 70% of its food needs. We have more water in Loch Ness than all the lakes and reservoirs in England. Westminster you truly do not want to piss us off. We Scots are the best most loyal friends you can have, you should have learned and appreciated that a bit more over the past 313 years. We do however make the worst enemies you can possibly imagine, you should have learned that bit too!
Your choice Westminster friend or foe?
Beautiful..!
At last, a light at the end of the tunnel. Just hope it’s not another train.
I’m still very dubious about the SNP’s motives with regards the Martin Keatings case, that would have surely helped our cause. I’m sorry but I remain sceptical about the SNP, as a life long supporter of Independence how many mandates do they need, and as you say we’ve heard all this before and nothing happened. I sincerely hope to god I’m wrong, I really do.
I’m not holding my breath or building up any hopes – just to have them dashed once again. I’ll believe them when they actually announce a date for a referendum.
The question mark in the title is to be strongly noted.
While I will be delighted to see this remarkable change of tack and resolve, I find it quite out of character and scope from the vindictive,micro-machiavellianism that has been the current leadership’s hallmark.
It’s still reasonable to assume that there are many around the party establishment that are more than happy to be the biggest fish in the westminster catch net.
If I’m wrong, I’m sure everyone will be so happy, I will be forgiven.
I want to see the bill and i want a plan b at conference just in case because I would not trust a word the oresent leadership says above a Tory and I wont be voting for the SNP at the election unless its an immutable guarantee of a referendum during 2021. If not I will be leaving the country.
I hope you are right!
We will know shortly.
No.
It is simply the latest mechanism to ensure the ever indulgent, ever gullible Yes vote coalesces around the SNP at election time. If anybody in Government has seriously bought that as a strategy then it says everything about the kind of people the FM surrounds herself with.
Interesting you mention GRA, because that WILL be in the same manifesto. Surely you are not being deceived into giving the SNP a majority so that and the (hated) Hate Crime Bill can be implemented while the cause of Independence is left in that much-abused can we hear clattering just beyond the horizon?
There is a reason why the supposed Referendum is proposed for AFTER the election. Use your head people and do not be taken for fools again.
This can all be comfortably wrapped up BEFORE the next election if the political will is there. But it isn’t.
I have been very specific.
‘There are a great many people suggesting and with justification that we have heard this one before from the SNP. I won’t go over all the times between 2016 and this latest announcement that have been reneged upon or abandoned by SNP.
What the SNP need to do this time is be absolutely explicit in how this is going to be implemented.’
Explicit and long before we go to the polls.
Plus, we have to remember that the FM was very clear that all she was committing to was publishing a DRAFT bill.
Very specifically, this means it will NOT be ‘introduced’ before the next election, never mind just after Christmas.
Ok, correct me if I’m wrong, but won’t the 2021 election signal a new government that will then set out new legislative plans ?
Manifesto promises are at worst broken or at best ignored by virtually every elected government in the world, and I don’t see the SNP being any different. So I have every doubt that promises made now will in effect cease to be relevant come May next year.
In the last few elections I have put aside my concerns over SNP policy to vote for them, and thus providing a stronger voice for a new referendum. It hasn’t happened, the numerous mandates have never been used. I would be a fool to believe that ‘this time will be different.’
In the meantime, my concerns over SNP policy are at breaking point. Fundamentally I am being asked, amongst other things, to make a choice between my beliefs for an independent Scotland, that biological sex is real and should be protected and that critical free speech is a human right, also to be protected.
In a choice of those, it is independence that I will give up on, purely because I have never had it while the other
I see as primary to my lived experience.
So to make it simple, i have a proposal. I’ve mentioned this elsewhere. For me to vote SNP in next years Government election (it isn’t a referendum), the SNP must promise to completely drop GRA, the Hate Crime Bill etc for the entirety of the next parliament and pledge to hold an Independence referendum within a year of taking office.
Otherwise I will not vote for them anymore and I’ll be looking to only vote for the ISP on the list, wasting my constituency vote. That of course depends on a new list party running a candidate in my area for me to vote for.
Will I feel guilty about it ? No. The SNP have had multiple votes from me and opportunity to push for another referendum, they have not taken them.
“… They are also more than aware from their recent dealings over Brexit that the UK Government do not negotiate or act in good faith.They have seen first hand that legally binding treaties or agreements mean nothing to UK. The Brits are only interested in their own viewpoint and have no hesitation in ignoring conventions or legality in pursuit of these narrow aims… ”
So, we are going down the route that Catalunya took if we do not get a S30 Order, BB? Spain didn’t honour Catalunya’s vote; indeed, it tried to prevent it. Why would the UK do things differently? Why would it take us to court if we voted to go without permission? Which court? The Supreme Court has already ruled that devolution does not bestow the power to override Westminster. This feels to me much more like the SG is trying to avoid any confrontation on the Treaty, and is prepared, if what your informant said is right, to see us being beaten into submission, like the Catalans. The European Union and the UK Union are two very different things. That Security Council seat does not depend on rUK being in the EU, but keeping Scotland is very much part of it.
Then, unless the referendum is timetabled for early Autumn, 2021, we are liable to be stuck in trade deals from which we will not be able to extricate ourselves without severely damaging England, not to mention ourselves, and remember how reluctant the FM and the SG have been to do that with a one-sided Brexit withdrawal, hence the ‘whole of the UK’ approach.
This ‘plan’ is probably the worst that could be envisaged, and invites reprisals. Also, the Treaty must be part of any post independence negotiations, so what stance does the SG take on that, given that it feels that the UK cannot be trusted (a view with which I agree wholeheartedly)? I don’t think this has been thought through, like so much else the SG has been doing lately. If the UK does not honour treaties, why would it honour any negotiations based on international treaty law and the Treaty of Union at the negotiation stage?
It was at the negotiation stage with the EU that the NO Deal scenario, breaching the EU Treaties Law, reared its ugly head. If we breach international law on the Treaty of Union, and walk away, we are no better than England-as-the-UK, and our international standing as a new state would suffer immeasurably. The reason that the UK walks away from its international obligations – only on occasion, not always, because it is fearful of sanctions and a bad reputation – is because it has the US at its back, if the US can have the back of the UK and have the UK stuck half away up its rone pipe at the same time. Now, I’m really worried.
Let me stop you dead in your tracks. I have lived in Cataluyna for quite some time. I was here before their referendum. I do not know how many times this needs saying. Comparing Cataluyna and Scotland is like comparing apples and fire engines. Scotland was an independent sovereign nation for over a thousand years before (voluntarily) entering into a union of Crowns and Parliament’s. Cataluyna never has been a sovereign state. Their Nationalism is peaceful but more blood and soil, cultural than anything remotely like Scottish civic Nationalism. Spain has a written constitution UK has no written constitution. It depends more on precedent than anything written. (easier for English politicians to cheat and lie that way) The precedent in Scotland’s case is The Edinburgh Agreement. So the comparison of Scotland and Catalonia is at best a red herring and at worst stupidity and nonsense from Unionists.I am not however suggesting for one minute you are in the unionist category!
Not until after the Christmas recess? Is this not all far too little too late?
At the end of the year Scotland (despite all the promises) will have been dragged out of the EU against her will and BrexitJohnson will be busy flogging anything and everything to his pals and his controllers.
What are the chances of reversing that situation even if there were a vote for independence some months later?
Well said Roddy. You’ve captured my views entirely.The only way that ll see us through thee months to come will be if we unite as a movement. Since, you can bet your bottom dollar that our political opponents undoubtedly will.
The FM said she will put forward a “draft Bill”. I want to know what exactly she means by this. When will this “draft [IndyRef] Bill” be put before and passed by the Scots Parliament? After SE2021? How long after? NS said the timing of the referendum will be included in the draft Bill, so hopefully not too long after SE2021.
It seems then that this “draft Bill” will essentially become the SNP’s SE2021 party manifesto that the people of Scotland will be asked to vote on and to give this manifesto the biggest endorsement they can possibly give i.e. an SNP overall majority in ScotParl.
Assuming this happens then I see, in the new Parliament, that the SNP will then vote on the draft IndyRef Bill thereby DARING WM to challenge it. If WM simply ignore it then the Bill goes to HMQ for Royal Assent and becomes law i.e. a LEGAL Indy Referendum which, if the staff/Councillors of Unionist Councils try to boycott, could see them in jail. So WM can’t simply ignore the Bill or it WILL become law with HMQ’s signature (WM can theoretically over-rule HMQ but in reality would never attempt to do so). So WM would have to challenge or the Bill becomes legal. If they challenge then that will only drive indy support upwards. They know they cannot hold off a vote forever. Better for them to tackle IndyRef2 when they have half a chance of winning it (i.e. with YES at around 55% and NOT with YES above 60%).
What a bind!
PS – By then we might know the outcome of the Peoples’ S30 Case which may make all of the above entirely moot.
Yes but what if the verdict of the court in the people’s sect 30 case is that it is not legal for the Scotgov to hold an independence referendum without a sec 30. Where does that leave the proposed draft referendum bill? Chaos?
My view put a mandate for independence in the manifesto for the 2021 election.
If it’s established that Holyrood does need a S30 because it’s not sovereign, then only representatives to the parliament that claims sovereignty can act for Scotland.
Which means that we return to the position that a majority of Scottish MPs is a mandate to begin independence negotiations
A position that the SNP should never have left.
“Is it finally game on?”
Who knows? – the SNP have lost a lot of trust in recent times in the view of a lot of independence supporters. It does always seem to be jam tomorrow and the jam is usually after another election.
If they put it in their manifest and commit the Bill to law then yes it is game on. No doubt about it.
The SNP put a mandate for a referendum in a number of previous elections and it didn’t happen. If a referendum is in law with a date then I will believe it.
If only the Independence supporters could stop attacking each other and align.
This is not about the policies of ANY Party. One topic is important here…Independence!
Everything else will be decided AFTER we have won the power to shape our future.
Please stop the infighting and mud slinging.
I’m sorry, but there is an egregious lie at the centre of this article; namely that the only other unequivocally pro-independence party registered with the Electoral Commission is the untested ISP. The Scottish Greens have been explicitly and unequivocally pro-independence since their foundation, and have never hesitated to make the case for independence, and regard it as central to their political aspirations. To pretend otherwise is simply dishonest.
Incredibly you come on here suggesting that there has been as you put it an ‘ egregious lie’ in the article which, of course there has not been. You then compound that with not one but two egregious lies of your own.
Fact ISP core raison d’etre is Independence similarly to SNP.
You state, Scottish Greens have been explicitly and unequivocally pro-independence since their foundation
Untrue under Robin Harper the Greens were not pro independence, secondly Greens are an Environmental Party that have Independence as an add on and as shown with OBFA Greens can be seduced by Unionist bribes.
Greens in Scotland believe in science when it comes to climate change but deny science when it comes to biology. Not a trustworthy Party that will ever be endorsed by this blog. I warned at the time of OBFA I would never ever again trust Greens and would advise all other SNP voters that lent Greens their votes to think very carefully before ever doing so again.
My blog remains intact and factual sadly your comment is not as truthful.
Robin Harper is, indeed, against independence, but the manifesto for the first Scottish Parliament was pro-independence, as it has been ever since.
You then just hedge around the issue, by saying why you, personally, don’t want to vote Green, yet that does not alter the fact that they are pro-independence and have supported that cause vociferously, so, yes, your blog was extremely misleading in its assertion.
BTW, your assertions about biogs are presumably a dig at their trans rights position, in which case you really need to do some education of your outdated views, as biological science has moved on considerably since you learnt in high school. Plenty of good resources on this issue available, if you wish to read beyond your prejudices.
Adrian
I gave my Regional vote to the Greens in 2016. This resulted in R Greer being in the Scot parliament. Greer then said I was a cheat for voting for the Greens (as the Greens are in effect a list only party). Ross will not be getting my vote again.
And that’s your absolute right, Cubby, but let’s not pretend that there is only one other strongly pro-independence party registered with the Electoral Commission, a party totally untested at the ballot box, and which could actually cost us pro-independence seats, and let’s not pretend that people are advancing the cause of independence when they are unwilling to hold their noses and vote to send the maximum number of pro-independence MSPs to Holyrood. We already have the political vehicles to do that, but too many are wanting to claim unity, whilst not being prepared to vote Green, whilst many of us have been prepared to vote SNP, despite despairing at their timidity and some of their policy positions. It seems we are to have unity, as long as it does not include all the bits some people don’t wholly agree with
Adrian
Not much unity when the Greens voted to give the Green light to the football thugs. Encouraging sectarianism is not something looked favourably upon in the West of Scotland.
So, is this about independemce, or not?
Lots of things I disagree with the SNP on, but I look at the bigger picture, and give them my vote in both Holyrood and Westminster constituency elections.
If we want independence, then we need to back the two pro-indy parties at Holyrood, and not get distracted by other issues, or by hopes of gaming the system, which is at least as likely to backfire as to succeed.
Adrian
There is no such thing as gaming the system. You are just repeating R. Greer’s offensive cheating remark. The Greens are a list only party because they never get a constituency MSP – so in effect you are calling anyone who votes for the Greens a cheat.
No. Don’t put words in others’ mouths. That is not what I am saying.
However, the whole rationale of having a party purely to take former SNP 2 votes is an attempt to game the system. That is not cheating, and would be a legitimate tactic, if it was not likely to completely backfire, due to the complexities of the electoral system.
Again, my view is of the bigger picture. I want a strong, pro-independence majority. I simply believe that this will fail, and that there are better approaches to take. I put independence first, not picking fights within the existing movement.
Adrian
Not picking fights! Have a read back of your second post to Barrhead boy – a reminder – ” outdated views” – ” beyond your prejudices”
If the virus is still a major problem next year, and that is a possibility, will the suggested referendum then be shelved. Is this a cynical move to garner votes in May next year knowing there may well be a very valid reason at hand not to proceed with a referendum.
Feel free to call me cynical and lacking in trust in the SNP – because it would be accurate.
My only concern is:
After 1st IndyRef, votes were found abandoned in various places suggesting possible *vote interference* by UKgov. Could this be an issue?
Given the UKgov has much to lose and has often used underhand methods and lies in the past to achieve their desired result. How can Scotland prevented from happening?
One thing is certain.
We are largely powerless at the moment. We are relying on the SNP delivering this time. If, as you say they will press on with the Bill regardless of the WM belligerence. Then the proof will come in January.
It’s not that long to wait folks. A lot of us are at the point of despair. Mainly because Nicola has produced more bills than Cher’s plastic surgeon. So far she has capitulated at every challenge. Maybe this time with the polls in our favour , and the SNP in a strong position. Nicola may have finally realised that she holds the cards, not Boris.
The important thing this time is that the majority of Scots want independence. This has never happened before! This is different.
So lets all get on with our lives for a few months and see what January brings. There is no point in doing anything other than that at this stage.
The jury is out on whether this is another Nicola confidence trick. So I am kind of hopeful , but still very wary of being drawn into the “Trust in Nicola” trope.
This is your last chance Nicola, you better not let us down!
Blockchain.
Jock
“Then the proof will come in January” I thought that was supposed to be Jan 2020 in Sturgeons speech.
So we wait another year.
I vote SNP to deliver independence not string us along. I certainly do not vote SNP to see S. Ann – Somerville sitting on the front bench.
Pretty good article for the most part, but the indylistonly party idea is a non-starter.
Both votes SNP has delivered pro-indy government three times and overall majority once. Both votes SNP works, and will work again.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ListVoteSense/status/1301313695868489735
Graham
It was only by people like me voting for the Greens on the list that there is now a majority for independence in the Scot parliament. Amazingly, you seem to have forgotten that the SNP is a minority government at this point in time – “overall majority once” – are your own words.
If my vote and others on the regional list had been for the SNP instead of Greens then there would not have been one more SNP but one less independence supporting MSP.
Look again Cubby, I haven’t forgotten.
As for 2016, according to Prof Curtice, probable that SNP voters switching to Green on the list cost two SNP seats and the overall majority.
SNP can win seats on the list in every region in 2021 if enough people vote SNP on the list.
If people want Green, then vote Green, but voting for any of the pop-up indylistonly parties on the basis that they will increase pro-indy representation is a big mistake.
Graham
Not in my region it didn’t cost theSNP any seats.
Stop that.
Very few SNP voters switched to Green on the list. Far more Green voters switched to SNP on the constituency.
People who vote SNP on the constituency ballot list are not all natural SNP voters. It is abhorrent that the SNP expect people to abandon their party of choice on the list after lending them their vote in the constituency ballot.
But it is sadly typical of the growing sense of entitlement SNP politicians have.
The “pop-up party” (what, are we going to pop back down again, eh – naw!) and “too many list parties” attack memes do seem terribly like Murray Foote’s style.
I can advise that it was Pete Blockoman Wishart’s use of the pop-up term that was the final straw that caused me to ditch my 32 year SNP membership and sign up to ISP. Way to go Pete.
If independence is imminent we need more pro Indy parties for our independent parliament.
If independence is 8-10 years away we need more pro Indy parties to avoid effective one party rule for 24 years
Graham – The list vote can only work if we get behind one list party. The polls will indicate how well the list party is doing nearer the time.
You are correct it is a waste of time if there are 3 indi parties all competing and drawing 3% support. However if one indi party can garner 9-10% of the second vote then they can will seats that the SNP can’t. What we should never do is give unionists free seats by not voting with our heads.
If the system was fair the SNP would have 80 seats , when you combine the list and the 1st votes percentages. But the system is not fair. The second vote favours the parties who fail on the 1st vote and the second vote for that matter. D’Hont rewards failure!
“The list vote can only work if we get behind one list party.”
There are two mainstream pro-indy parties to get behind already.
SNP and SGP.
There is no need for any additional pro-indy parties, they will only dilute the vote.
This diluting the vote type of comment is just plain nonsense when referring to the regional list vote. The British parties pick up most of their seats from the list yet there are three of them. Diluting doesn’t affect them does it. Why because they get very few MPs in the constituencies.
The fundamental problem is that people keep voting for the SNP on the list when they will pick up very few MPs by that means.
How you place your vote depends on the objective you want to achieve. Is it:
1. Maximise SNP MSPs. or
2. Maximise independence supporting MSPs.
Now if the SNP were to have a crystal clear manifesto for INDEPENDENCE then I would vote SNP twice if not I will vote SNP in the constituency and another Independence Party in the regional list.