This week’s Through A Scottish Prism could not be about anything other than the Prime Minister’s decision to cut and run and call an election on July 4th. Everybody, I think it is fair to say we’re caught out by this announcement.
This week with Phil once more in transit I am joined by Lloyd and Eva to discuss the implications and likely outcome of this election. One of the first things we discussed is why on the most famous Independence Day in the world is the SNP running on a slogan of ‘Stop the Tories?’ Why not, ‘On Independence Day Vote for Independence!’
We assess the readiness of all the parties both in Scotland and beyond. We try to understand the thinking behind Sunak’s sudden announcement. Was it because he had heard of internal party moves afoot to remove him? Does he hope that this being the start of the summer and during a huge football tournament this will somehow benefit the Tories?
A low turnout for sure always benefits the Tories. Their vote will always exact their democratic right.Those inclined to vote for the unofficial Tories called by the name Labour are a bit less loyal and tend to easily be distracted from their right to vote.
If that is too cynical, could it be perhaps because Sunak knows of some disastrous economic news that will arrive mid to late summer? We know for sure that whatever Mr Sunak’s reasons it was not made with what was best for the subjects of the English Crown.
Starmer is already choosing new curtain material and wallpaper for No10. The only question on his mind is how big will his majority be? However, as Neil Kinnock found out in 1992 and Winston Churchill in 1945 the great British voting public do not always behave in a manner our cosseted and cushioned politicians expect.
Could Andrew Feinstein’s decision to stand against Keir Starmer in the Holborn & St Pancras constituency, result in a Portillo moment? Starmer is apparently now genuinely worried he will lose his seat. Jeremy Corbyn and another 14 or so Old Labour candidates are running as Independents. Could they end up costing Labour seats and even hold the balance of power in a hung Parliament?
The other factors to take into account are what effect will the Reform Party have on the votes of the right? Will George Galloway’s Socialist Party make inroads or will it collapse and put George out looking for another grift?
Meanwhile, in Scotland the SNP are in a complete mess. They have no money, no direction and no clue how to fight this election. Their slogan is Stop the Tories, the Tories slogan is vote for us to Stop the SNP. Labour’s slogan is Time for a change and vote for us to stop the SNP and the Tories. It is truly uninspiring stuff.
I expect in Scotland there will be a very low turnout and that the Apathy Party will win a landslide victory. This apathy of the voters,especially the independence supporting one’s is that in all likelihood the British Labour Party will hoover up 30 to 40 seats by default. This will be a phyric victory. I fully expect the Independence Movement to regroup post election. It wont be pretty however there has to be a bloodletting to get our independence movement back on top.
The Unionist vote will abandon the Tories and move over to Labour to defeat the SNP. Funnily enough none of the unionists will refer to this as gaming the system. We are noticing that in a great many seats in Scotland both the English Unionists Parties are not standing candidates to maximise the pro English Nationalist vote. An England United concept, I wish we had thought of something like that!
The SNP and Alba decisions not to fight on a Scotland United ticket will wreak havoc on both of them. The only unknowns are just how many seats will the SNP retain? The other question is will Alba save any of their deposits?
The one encouraging sign in all this is that our two Independent for Independence candidates are well funded and getting a great reception on the doors.
Today we discuss the election and other matters and we will continue to do so right up until July 4th.
Another great Prism Roddy WOW!!! EVA and LLOYD were on FIRE it just shows when the panel are allowed the time to answer without trying to cram in more guests IMO it makes the discussion more focused and interesting
Great stuff again. Spot on analyses and debate points from Eva, Lloyd and you, Roddy.
Almost ten wasted years. It wad gar ye greet. Listened to Nicola Sturgeon the other day and I thought I had been transported to another planet because I recognized nothing she said. She brought division and rancour to Scotland on a scale unprecedented in modern times, did absolutely nothing with her massive SNP majority and actually managed to set back independence. If those are achievements, then she deserves a medal. It’s all in her wee heid, her achievements, though, so no medal forthcoming.
I agree that ALBA could well blow it, but it is not their fault that the SNP will not play ball on unity. They must take the blame, however, for pitting two fine political minds against each other for the same constituency. I like Kenny and I think he knows his stuff, but so does Eva, and I like her, too. I have no vote in that constituency, but I still think it’s an opportunity missed.
As for my own constituency, it appears that I will have to spoil my ballot paper because I cannot, in all conscience, vote for the standing SNP candidate on a devolution forever and gender trumps biology ticket. Frankly, this brings tears to my eyes even thinking such a thing because I have voted SNP my whole life and I desperately wanted the SNP leadership to form a loose unity alliance with ALBA and all the other independence parties – just, for once, in ten years, to do the right thing for Scotland – and heal the self-inflicted wounds. A few years ago, I would never have dreamt that I would not vote.
Something is happening in Scotland, though, as people become more and more aware that we cannot continue in this vein, in this Union. We are a spit away from the end of the patience road, and we will have to choose which way to go from there. I do not believe that we can just carry on, and I don’t believe that we can just go back to a mythical past. The gods of politics are going to create chaos in Scotland very soon as two massive ideas come to full fruition and clash with opposing forces.
One is independence versus the Union/continued devolution; and the other is biology and reality versus delusion and anti science. Both will come to a head very soon, and Scotland is going to be a battlefield until resolution takes place. It will be no use if we go for independence and leave the biology behind to fester and spoil that new Scottish state, and, conversely, we cannot resolve the biology without independence as a natural progression. Separately, but together, as they are inextricably linked, they will become our biggest tests as a nation, for hundreds of years. Failure to resolve either will result in the end of our society.
Not My Parliament on the ballot paper
Eva for FM.
I would support that 💯