A NEW poll has thrown some fascinating light on the independence question in Wales.
And shown yet again how this whole question is also re-defining traditional politics here as well.
In the latest Redfield and Walton opinion poll this week, there was an increase of 2% in the numbers supporting independence, up to 36%.
A very healthy base you would imagine for any official campaign which might be launched in the near future.
But there were also two other very encouraging indicators of the general direction of travel contained within the poll too.
For instance, 53% of young people between 18 and 24 would vote YES in an independence referendum.
But an even more telling statistic was the fact that 55% of those who voted for Labour in the 2019 General Election would also vote YES in a referendum.
This statistic is very inconvenient for Welsh Labour, and their fanatically unionist leader, Mark Drakeford. As it appears that a majority of his own voters now have a very different vision for Wales’s future to his own.
Which is wedded to a model of Britain that no longer exists in reality.
But the poll was also embarrassing for Plaid as well,as it also measured public support for parties contesting a Senedd Election.
You’d think that this surge in support for independence would also boost Plaid, but in fact it proved to be the complete opposite.
With the party falling 3% in their support, down to 16%- which is their worst polling since the start of devolution 25 years ago.
An awful start for the new party leader Rhun ap Iorwerth if truth be told, with no sign at all of any “bounce” following his elevation.
There could well be a range of different reasons for this 3% drop in Plaid’s polling. The recent sexual shenanigans haven’t helped for sure.
And perhaps as well, voters were not too impressed that the party decided against having any democratic contest for the leadership, going for a quick coronation instead.
So, it seems that public sentiment is posing real problems for what has become the establishment in Wales over recent years- the Labour and Plaid duopoly.
It will be very interesting to see how the two parties respond to this huge challenge that the Independence question is now posing for the existing paradigm here.
In a way of course, it’s very refreshing that the Independence campaign has a life of its own beyond traditional parties and traditional politics too.
Because the idea is obviously appealing to people who are not part of the party mentality which has blighted political life in Wales for so many years.
People who are enthused by the prospect of a whole new way of doing politics emerging here in Wales.
The latest polling is also testimony to the sensible and pragmatic messaging of YES Cymru’s new CEO, Gwern Gwynfil.
Who has refused to be browbeaten into following a particular independence vision proposed by the ideological left here.
Emphasizing rather that the independence campaign should include all parts of the political spectrum.
As it is an idea which is not only beyond traditional parties, but also beyond the old notions of what an Independent Wales “should” be like.
His core message: “ Independence is an open page that we can all hope to write our own visions on” is obviously resonating far and wide right now.
The task for the independence movement now is to maintain a delicate balance between two distinct elements.
On the one hand, continue to develop a people-based campaign which is totally different to the old political model here.
Whilst on the other hand, continuing to cultivate the interest of the established political parties in different ways, who although stagnating in different ways, are unlikely to disappear from the scene overnight.
As the harsh truth is that independence is not going to be handed over to us on a plate from Westminster.
It will have to be won here in our own Senedd here in Wales.
Either as a result of an Independence Referendum called by the Senedd- or by independence-supporting parties winning a majority in a Senedd Election and declaring independence.
The new politics and the old politics.
Have to go hand in hand.
As the YES Cymru CEO would no doubt say:
“Progress through pragmatism”.
The next Independence Rally is to take place in Bangor in the north-west on September 21st.
Aled Gwyn Jôb
Good for the Welsh people! We have to get a move on – or they’ll be there before us!
“The task for the independence movement now is to maintain a delicate balance between two distinct elements.”
Independence (i.e. decolonization) is always a struggle between two national cultures and national identities, one of which is made dominant and authoritative, with the other rendered subordinate and invalid.
The two main ‘elements’ or determinants of independence in Wales are people holding to either a Welsh or a British identity. So long as those holding to a British cultural identity remain the larger group (60%+), Wales will likely remain part of the UK. Welsh language policy has nevertheless been instrumental in maintaining Welsh identity and in turn support for independence.
The Scottish Referendum Survey similarly established that the majority of voters who backed the ‘No’ campaign did so primarily because they felt ‘British’. This suggests pro-independence parties should focus on key influencers of national identity such as as culture and language (as the basis of national consciousness), and rather less on general policies of left or right in competition with ‘colonial’ parties.
In Scotland, whilst Gaelic is now taught to Gaelic communities, far greater emphasis needs to be placed on the indigenous Scots language that is still spoken by many more Scots, and which should also be taught in schools. Language is a human right as well as the ‘fabric of our culture’ and forming the basis of ‘a peoples’ identity.
Colonialism only works by de-basing the colonized, and particularly his culture and language, giving him a new and supposedly ‘superior’ (i.e. ‘British’) identity through the process of ‘cultural assimilation’; this is no more than a ‘cultural illusion’ which enables a people to be exploited and their lands/resources plundered.
https://salvo-cor.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/THEORETICAL+CASE+FOR+SCOTTISH+INDEPENDENCE.pdf
Couple of wee points – would the Senedd call a referendum on Indy? Regardless of Westminster’s view on that? If WM decides on a S30 for Wales too – would the Senedd crumble in the face of that, as the Scottish Govt did?. Also – I’d take issue with referring to Mark Drakeford as “fanatically Unionist”. I know him relatively well, having been a neighbour for the near 30 years I lived in Cardiff, and we were in the same Labour party branch (I left them many years ago!). Yes he’s very loyal to Welsh Labour and probably will remain so, but he’s a lot more pragmatic towards an Indy Wales than any of our useless Scottish Labour “leaders”. A lot of us felt he was simply in the wrong party. Of course he may have changed his views since then.