I like to think of myself as a logical type of guy that is why when at school I struggled with Algebra and Physics.
My wee daft brain just could not understand how you can add, multiply and divide letters with numbers.
The second day of Algebra my tiny pea brain decided ,naw not for me, and shut down.
I literally heard the shutters coming down in my head as we moved on to using letters in division.
Arithmetic I was ok with and unlike the kids nowadays I can actually add, subtract and multiply in my head.
I bet I am not the only person of my generation that shakes their head in amazement when you are in a pub and ask for 2 pints at say £3.10 a pint and the kid behind the bar has to use the till to give you the price.
That is why I just cannot understand the latest opinion polls on independence, like Algebra it just does not make any logical sense to me.
Nor am I a psephologist when any polls come out I wait for James Kelly of Scotgoespop to give his take on the numbers before I even start to try and get my head around them.
I am more and more convinced with each new poll that as Peter Hitchens suggests Opinion Polls are not so much for measuring opinion more about influencing opinions.
Looking back to September 2014 the difference in the sides was 45%-55%, put another way 2,001,926 against 1,617,989 For Independence a difference of 383,937.
I understand these numbers and indeed they are imbedded in my brain.
We were told after the Referendum that our worst demographics were the 55yr olds+, and EU expats.
(I refuse to refer to fellow Scots as immigrants, and the UK do not keep accurate records however we are told the number of New Scots is approximately 200,000.)
We were informed and are constantly told that the 16-18 year olds are our best demographic when it comes to voting Yes.
I have taken just the first quarter of 2018 as an example and it shows these facts,
The statistics show 12,713 births, and 17,771 deaths were registered between January and March 2018.
There is a link below for those of you who want to get to exact numbers I just want to lay out some basic thoughts and numbers.
There seems to be more people dying than births so “logically” there are more 55+ dying than 16/18yr olds who are also filling up the electoral register at a rate of approx. 1.5 times more than those dying off.
However to make this simpler let us just say each year since 2014 approx.1% of our population are dying meaning that some 50,000 x4 deaths since September 2014 is around 200,000 that were eligible to vote and or did vote that are no longer with us.
We have approx. 384,000 16 and 17 yr olds coming on to the register since 2014 so we have a net gain of around 184,000 in our best demographic replacing those that were our worst demographic.
Then using my logical brain that the 200,000 New Scots from the EU will en masse now be switching to Yes.
Not allowing for the many that are switching their votes every day, one thinks of high- profile names like Murray Foote, Simon Pia and we have also seen the fantastic series from Phantom Power featuring No to Yes converts.
There has been no equivalent Yes to No high or low profiles and if there were any I think it is safe to assume they would be getting high exposure in MSM and Broadcasting.
Anecdotally and from the foreign owned media in Scotland and the Pollsters we are told there are Yes to No switchers I have yet to meet one or know of anybody else that has actually met any of these alleged new No voters.
However here is what Sir John Curtice wrote compiling numbers on the Referendum from among others Ashcroft polling.
According to Ashcroft just 27% of those aged 65 and over voted Yes, while only 43% of those aged 55-64 did so. In contrast 52% of Ashcroft’s 45-54 year olds voted Yes, 53% of the 35-44 year olds, 59% of 25-34 year olds and 52% of those in the 16-24 age group. These figures have led some to conclude rather indelicately that older voters thwarted the will of the under 55s.
We can see then that of the approximately 200,000 that have since passed away, Curtice and Ashcroft tell us 77% of 65+ Voted No and 57% of 55+also voted No.
Without being cruel in any way it is logical to assume that the vast majority of those deaths were in the 55+ age groups.
Meanwhile, pollsters are suggesting upwards of 75% of the new 16 to 18 year olds, will be Yes Voters, add to this the 200,00 New Scots that logically will now switch to YES without even applying other Brexit converts.
Yes should be comfortably in front in every poll published yet no poll seems to ever show a shift in opinion.
This makes opinion polls to me like Algebra, it just doesn’t make logical sense to my tiny pea brain.
I am probably now going to be inundated by anoraks telling me the flaws in my numbers however nobody I think will be able to deny the logic, those coming on to the register are more likely to vote yes than those heading to the polling station in the sky who were more likely to have voted NO and surely no EU Citizen is going to vote against at worst membership of EFTA F.O.M.,SM & CU, etc.?
So no I don’t believe the independence polls are accurate, as Mr Hitchen says,