The Big Gamble.

I am struggling to find a positive reason for Scotland to back the English People’s Vote.

Perhaps some of you who bother to read this can enlighten me.

Here is how I view it, the only justification for backing the notion is that the SNP strategists are almost 100% sure that Westminster will never agree to this vote.

Then the SNP can truly say, “well we tried everything, we offered every concession and they rejected every single overture we made.

We are now left with no other choice but to recommend that the Scottish people vote for independence!”

Should that not be the strategy then I think we have handed the Britnats a stick to beat us with whenever we do hold a referendum on independence.

Let us presume that against all the odds Westminster does agree to this second vote on Brexit.

The vote goes ahead and there is a huge Remain Vote in Scotland and a small victory UK wide to reject Brexit.

The bear traps for our movement are obvious, first and foremost an immediate independence referendum becomes impossible if UK reverses the Brexit vote.

We have no ‘material change’ and in any future Independence struggle even if we win the plebiscite the Unionists could demand a second vote on the terms that Scotland and RUK agree upon.

It does not take a genius to work out exactly how the Rumpers would negotiate and pontificate or how much propaganda would be unleashed to undermine the first result.

IMHO we should have distanced ourselves from this entirely which in itself would have reinforced the ‘we are a different country already’ narrative.

We could have stood behind the very credible, “we have already given our opinion by 62% to 38%.”

This Brexit mess was made in England and Wales it is up to you two to sort out your own mess.

The chaos that would ensue this guarantees a material change in the relationship no matter what they do to fix their chaos.

There is no precedent of us backing a second vote following a successful  independence plebiscite for them to exploit.

Unless I am missing something we have made a tactical misstep.


 

Saor Alba gu brath.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

9 thoughts on “The Big Gamble.

  • “…an immediate independence referendum becomes impossible if UK reverses the Brexit vote.”

    Why? At what point did the entire independence project become conditional on Brexit? When was it decided to ignore all the other “material changes”? When did the very nature of the Union cease to be sufficient reason for ending it?

  • Independence is not conditional upon Brexit. Scotland is in a worse position today regarding governing itself than it was in September 2014. Brexit has also had many irreversible changes, mainly due to the relocation of EU bodies and global businesses and financial institutions. That won’t go away in the very unlikely event of a “Peoples’ Vote”. On top of that this PV is not proposed to be Leave/Remain, but the choice between 2 unacceptable options to Scotland.

    I do, however, think that you are correct in your thoughts on why the SNP is supporting the PV.

  • You asked for your loyal, (let me rephrase that), your faithful (nope, that’s not any better) your adoring readership to enlighten you as to the folly of your thinking. Well, sit back and prepare yourself for some illumination.

    It’s all very well to say that we shouldn’t take part in any second Euro referendum because “we’ve already given our opinion” and pursuing a ‘we are a different country already’ narrative but adopting that sort of sniffy, arms folded attitude doesn’t really do anyone any good. We gave our opinion as part of the UK, not as Scotland, and we are a different country in our own perception only, not in international law.

    Let’s look at the facts:

    2014 saw the majority of Scots decide to continue to throw their lot in with the UK and continue to live at the mercy of English whim and fancy under the banner of ‘the UK’.

    Much as you, I and 45% of the population may despair at such self-demeaning stupidity, that’s what Scotland chose to do.

    Then comes 2016 and the EU referendum.

    We gave our opinions on the European project, so did England. The result is that we’re both f*cked.

    So far so incontrovertible?

    So what should Nicola do?

    She has the mandate for IndyRef2 if Brexit happens; that much is clear and undeniable. And if Brexit happens, we WILL have a 2nd IndyRef.

    That’s what you want, it’s what I want, it’s what she wants; so why the hell is she supporting a 2nd EU referendum which could see a Remain win – and with it a removal of our mandate for IndyRef2, since the premise on which that mandate is based, i.e being dragged out of the EU, would no longer exist.

    The “why” is clear. It’s frustrating, it’s prosaic and it’s energy-sapping, but it’s clear and it is this:

    She has to do what’s best for the country.

    And what’s best for Scotland is to do everything possible to ensure that we remain in the EU.
    As a result of remaining in the EU, fewer people will lose their jobs and their homes, fewer of our EU fellow citizens will live in fear and uncertainty and the thousand catastrophes of going it alone in the world will be avoided. That’s what she, as the leader of the country, has to focus on. For her, it has to be country over party; she is, after all, not a Tory

    If that means the UK voting on EUref2 and remaining and if that means we are bound to England for a year or a decade or a generation longer, so be it.

    There can be little doubt that our future as an independent country within the EU is immeasurably brighter than a future tied to the rusting, sinking, bitter hulk of England – but there is absolutely no guarantee that we would vote for that independent future. If we turn our faces against EUref2 and then vote NO again in the resulting, post-Brexit IndyRef2, then we are truly and utterly fucked.

    It would therefore be a dereliction of duty and responsibility and a national betrayal on a monumental Tory scale if Nicola was willing to gamble the certain decimation of Scotland’s economy against a 50/50 chance of independence, no matter how much she, you or I may want that.

    So that, in a nutshell, is why she’s supporting EURef2 and working against her own political interests; because she believes it’s the best thing for Scotland. And I’d do exactly the same thing.

  • Not sure it was a good strategy either. It will be interesting to see how this develops. What is more important to them? It may just be that holding onto their cash cow is paramount. They will show their true colours, and hopefully it won’t be too late for us.

  • As I see it the peoples vote is aboutt what version of brexit we get. A crap deal or no deal. None of them good. The chances of the vote actually happening are slim to none so being seen to back a peoples vote shows the Scotgov have tried everything to engage with Westminster over brexit, something that may be crucial in the near future.
    When Nicola Sturgeon calls Indyref2, what happens if May say “now is not the time” ?
    Scotland will no doubt have to fight it possibly all the way to the highest court and could still probably be refused.
    What then?
    Hold an advisory teferendum of our own and if the numbers fall in our favour stick two fingers up to Westminster and say bye bye we’re going it alone.
    You can guarantee Westminster will spit the dummy and do their damdest to scupper us and their best option for that would be to persuade other countries to refuse to recognise us as an independent nation. Recognition by the EU nations would be crucial too to get whatever kind of deal we choose to continue trading with them.
    To get this recognition Scotland would have to show that it has tried everything and investigated every avenue to work with and reach agreement with Westminster but have been rebuffed with every attempt and left with no choice but to declare independence with the backing of the Scottish people.
    Since 2014 we all know how many promises have been broken, how the deal we were promised then looks nothing like what we got and with brexit so it continues.
    Keep feeding them rope etc etc …

  • Small point, you imply that the rUK might negotiate maliciously on the independence settlement (like, when do they ever negotiate any other way?). Remember, however, that a ‘no-deal’ Scottish Independence means that Scotland walks away debt-free, while rUK debt per head immediately increases by 10%.

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